EV Reality Check 2025: From Hype to Reality
- Garrett Hiles
- Jun 12
- 5 min read
A Candid Conversation with Justin Goeglein
By Garrett Hiles
When electric vehicles first hit the mainstream, the narrative felt unstoppable: production forecasts soared, startups drew billion-dollar valuations overnight, and every legacy automaker pledged an all-electric lineup by 2030. Fast-forward to mid-2025 and the story is more complicated. Sales are still growing, but the growth curve has flattened; infrastructure is coming online, but never quite fast enough; and the venture capital fire hose has slowed to a trickle.
To understand this “messy middle,” I sat down with Justin Goeglein—engineer, vehicle electrification advocate, and lifelong gearhead—for a frank discussion about what’s working, what isn’t, and where genuine opportunity now lies.
From Euphoria to Recalibration
“Three years ago, money rained on anything with electrification,” Justin begins. “Now capital is cautious and the market’s pruning the weak branches.”
He’s not exaggerating. U.S. EV market share slipped to 7.5 percent in Q1 2025, down from 8.7 percent the previous quarter—even though absolute sales still inched up year over year. Meanwhile, Tesla’s U.S. deliveries have fallen 26 percent since their 2023 peak, trimming the brand’s total market share to roughly three percent.
Consolidation can help recycle the best ideas instead of letting them die. Volvo Group’s purchase of Proterra’s battery division salvaged proven pack technology, a ready-made U.S. factory, and a veteran engineering team—instantly accelerating Volvo’s electric-truck roadmap. Meanwhile, Nikola and Lucid have each leaned on strategic tie-ups—Nikola by absorbing battery-maker talent and assets, Lucid by licensing its ultra-efficient drive units to other OEMs—to keep hard-won IP and specialists in play rather than being scattered to the wind. Together, these moves show how shake-outs can turn yesterday’s hype into tomorrow’s building blocks.
He also pointed to emerging companies like Harbinger that have carved out stable niches in fleet electrification. They offer a fresh take on proven work chassis and creative options like a range extender hybrid.
These aren’t just survivors—they’re adapting in a space that’s shifting from hype to reality. As Justin put it, “We’ve clearly moved past the euphoria. A lot of folks are sitting in disillusionment—but that’s where real, flowered opportunities start to take root.”
“Slate is one of the rare players that came out of stealth with a clear vision, they went their own direction,” Justin said. “By focusing on an unmet lane—a U.S-built, affordable EV that prioritizes real-world utility—they resonated with the market and are poised for success.
“We’ve clearly moved past the euphoria. A lot of folks are sitting in disillusionment—but that’s where real, flowered opportunities start to take root.”
The Hybrid Resurgence and Other Paths
One surprise winner of 2024–25 has been the resurgence of hybrids. Rising battery-mineral costs, the uncertainty of US availability, and trade limited natural resources to meet projected demand have nudged buyers back toward smaller packs paired with efficient combustion engines. In the U.S., hybrid and PHEV registrations are climbing at double-digit rates while pure-battery EV growth cools.
EV batteries are mineral-intensive and currently not possible to recycle at scale. Because a PHEV uses a pack one-quarter the size—or less—it needs fewer critical materials up front and generates less end-of-life waste.
Plug-in hybrids make electrification feel familiar: they cover the daily commute on battery power, yet fall back on gasoline for spontaneous road trips. Drivers get the instant-torque EV experience without the “will-I-make-it?” stress, and utilities get a gentler ramp-up in demand while charging infrastructure catches up.
Hydrogen fuel cells rode the same wave of electrification hype—offering electric drive without long charge stops—but they magnified the infrastructure problem: producing, transporting, and dispensing H₂ is even pricier than rolling out fast-chargers. Toyota still champions the technology, yet pump prices that routinely top $20/kg have broken the current business model; hydrogen could still round out the energy mix, but only when clean, low-cost supply becomes widely accessible.
Infrastructure: Progress, With Potholes
Nationally, about one in five public fast chargers are reported with an outage at least once per quarter—a reliability gap big enough to stall road-trip adoption.
Tesla’s decision to open its Supercharger network under the new NACS standard is helping, but adapters and payment-system upgrades mean universal access won’t become seamless for several more years.
Justin is bullish on battery-buffered depots: "These depots solve the peak-demand problem by delivering high-power charging from on-site storage instead of directly from the grid,” Justin explains. “I expect to see these systems installed at truck stops and big-box parking lots in the next few years. "
Living With an EV—The Unvarnished Version
Justin’s garage has spanned the full spectrum—from a first-generation Nissan Leaf to a pocket-sized electric skateboard, and from a beefy Rivian pickup to a nimble electric dual-sport motorcycle—so his enthusiasm comes with caveats: winter range drops, sluggish cabin heat in sub-freezing temps, and motorcycle-sized battery packs that still can't match a full day's highway miles.
“Even as an advocate, I still grab the hybrid for the February road trip,” he laughs. “Convenience is part of sustainability—nobody wants to freeze at a charger.”
Still, the upsides remain: instant torque, silent cruising, pennies-per-mile energy costs, and scant maintenance.
Opportunity in the “Messy Middle”
Used EV Bargains – The average Model 3 now retails for about $26 000, down nearly 11 percent year on year. For commuters with a home charger, that’s unbeatable value.
Fleet Electrification Niches – Delivery, municipal, and campus fleets can amortize chargers over predictable duty cycles, sidestepping the public-infrastructure gap.
Grid-friendly Hybrids – Automakers are scrambling to release PHEVs that qualify for tax credits but sip just enough gasoline to calm range nerves.
Justin’s prediction? “The future isn’t 100 percent battery. It’s diversified—pure EVs in dense cities, larger consumer HEVs for broader adoption, and specialized EV/PHEV purpose built platforms for work trucks and fleets.”
The Road Ahead
Four million electric cars were sold worldwide in Q1 2025—35 percent more than the same period last year—proving demand remains resilient when price and practicality align. But long-term success will hinge less on splashy launches and more on durable economics: battery supply chains, charging uptime, residual-value confidence, and a grid that grows smarter alongside its load.
Strip away the headlines and the EV story is neither boom nor bust—it’s a classic industry adolescence. As Justin puts it, “Hype got us here, and the best ideas will carry us forward.”
Join the Conversation
Have you hit an EV pain point—or found a clever workaround? Share your experience in the comments below or tag us on LinkedIn with #EVRealityCheck. Let’s swap notes and keep the learning curve steep.
Sources
CarEdge. “Electric Vehicle Sales and Market Share (US – Q1 2025 Updates).” April 2025. caredge.com
Cox Automotive Market Insights. “Q1 2025 EV Sales Forecast: U.S. Electric-Vehicle Sales Increase Year-over-Year.” April 2025. coxautoinc.com
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). “Hybrid-Vehicle Sales Continue to Rise as Electric and Plug-in Growth Evolves.” May 2025. eia.gov
Harvard Business School / Bloomberg. “One in Five Public EV Chargers in the U.S. Don’t Work, Study Finds.” June 2024. bloomberg.com
International Energy Agency (IEA). Global EV Outlook 2025 – Trends in Electric-Car Markets. 2025. iea.org
Forbes. “Used Tesla Model 3 Inventory Surges Below $25,000.” May 2025. forbes.com
InsideEVs. “Tesla Model 3 Used Prices Dropping to About $26,000, Says Study.” September 2024. insideevs.com
McGrath, Rita. "Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen." Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2019.
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